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Notes by EMA: The New TINA Towards 2040

Enrique Aboitiz Mendieta

Notes

06 – 2018

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Again, these are a composition of thoughts that I have collated from various articles and papers from banks, magazines, et. al. Your opinion is valued. Please send and we will incorporate.


Taking from an age-old theory that the world economy is dependent and driven by energy and natural resources, to which I add technology and attitude, I have come up with this analysis of the new TINA, meaning There Is No Alternative. Shell coined this word 30 or so years ago and, back then, the components of TINA were globalization, eco-political liberalization, advanced and rapid technological change, and the accelerated expectations of society. These have proven to be correct and are still in evolution.

What will TINA look going forward? What will there be no alternatives to? What will we have to adjust to or fail, or just win, or be the winner? Our goal has to be the winner.

 

1. Cheap and Renewable Energy Long-Term

The world has to clean up. If not, it may go broke or sacrifice other qualities of life. Medical bills will kill all budgets. The old and sick could bankrupt economies or will come at the serious cost of other social services, aside from the climactical damages we fear.

What does energy have to be?

Predictable

Long-term

Very small marginal costs

The above results in:

Cheap water

Cheap  food

Electric cars

Air and emissions cleaned up

Internet 3.0 — Blockchain

Internet 4.0 — Internet of sensors and machines

Less intermediary costs and more productivity

No poverty and increase purchasing power

More services as a component of GDP

Taste is local — development of local brands, etc.

 

2. EM (emerging markets) Becoming DM (developed markets) — the Merging of DM

A richer and richer world everywhere

Driven by Asian middle-class growth

This time around, it is billions that will be brought to the consumption class.

Poverty eliminated

Education enhanced

India and other poor countries come out of their poverty positions.

Will developed economies have to restructure to compete?

 

3. Russia’s Noise – EEU and USA / Japan will “merge” – Only way to compete with China

The Russian Economy has to change from just muddling along. They will lag behind. Unless Putin dies or fades and someone rises to modernize and change structurally. Today, it is the size of Spain.

Reaction to Trump could be good — pendulum effect by the next administration. He wants to reverse much of the unfairness that America itself has allowed knowingly because it could afford doing so. It was richer. That is no longer the case.

China moving up the value chain will strengthen them and everyone else. To compete against tomorrow’s China and India, USA, and EEU may find the need to merge their economies somehow. They will not be able to take on China alone and will, probably, not want it to take on too strong a position. They will need to counterbalance that position.

 

4. Accelerated Merging of Technology and Everything

Robots will be a productivity tool, not a threat.

Technology and medicine merging to improve quality of life as well as longevity

Technology and everything on the Internet of Things

AI – will jobs be lost or gained? How much of the operations of the service sector can be automated? We have to believe that new jobs will be created as they fund technological advances.

Travel will explode with low-cost air travel, dropping as fuel becomes cheaper, as engines become more efficient, as aircraft manufacturing is increasingly automated, and as more airports are built for the billions who do not travel.

 

5. Tourism Expansion Worldwide – the main driver of the drop in inequality

Middle-class service job creation

Increased understanding of the world through travel

It will be hard for any country, especially China, to misbehave when they have billions of dollars invested all over the world, millions of Chinese buying homes all over the world, millions of Chinese emigrating, and tens of millions of Chinese in the air and in other countries at any one point in time.

 

6. EEU Wake Up and the Merger with USA + India

Banking union? Maybe not.

It will take the three above to compete with China and keep it at bay. The Indians will choose London over Beijing.

 

7. Population Flattening

Technology will make healthier and more productive people of all ages. The elderly will gain the most because of attitude. The young expect and squander. The elderly appreciate and maximize.

Will “old” be 85 and above?

Thoughts from others: AI will reduce the gap. Productivity will expand into the elderly.

 

8. Democracy is adjusting

Pure democracy is not competitive. It is driven by uninformed, emotional opinions. More controlled autocracy needs to be introduced. We know the risks of too much autocracy.

The middle-class destruction needs to be arrested.

 

9. The battle will move to the economy that will be a factor of education and facilitation by economic units.

More infrastructure and less regulation.

The past 20 years have been the opposite – more regulation and less infrastructure in relative terms to need.

The left lost the experiment of communism. They are still there. There are people that just cannot sleep at night when others get richer than the rest even if they are the ones that made the rest richer or less poor than ever. They are moving into government and media. Their weapon in government is regulation. Their weapon in media is confusion and miseducation. Political correctness is about inefficiency and confusion.

 

10. Immigration

Using purely common sense, it must be right to divide immigration into two: normal immigration, and one caused by some disaster, war or natural. It has to make sense to allow positive additions into one’s country and filter out the negative. It cannot be right to allow lepers in. They will contaminate. Now, to add elements that contaminate in non-physical forms must be the same. One, the helpless. It cannot make sense for the civilized world to expect a country to do it alone and that it must be spread to all civilized nations. How can it be right to allow illegal immigrants to come in or to stay? If you need them and they are good, better to legalize them. If not, deport them. Is that inhumane? Well, what about the rest who are there already?

Listen to others directly.

 

11. Bar Supertrends

Angry society and a multipolar world

Technology at the service of humans

Exploited before being irrelevant

Service will eat up jobs – tourism, care

Infrastructure gap-closing

Millennial values – Experience versus consumption

Silver economy

 

To watch worldwide:

China will get old before it gets rich.

The New Silk Road

Russian modernization

Indian growth

The economic unification of the USA + EEU + UK Commonwealth and possible India to compete against China

Evolution of tourism and travel

Blockchain

Move to clean, zero marginal cost energy

The Dumb Phone